CFP last date
20 May 2024
Call for Paper
June Edition
IJCA solicits high quality original research papers for the upcoming June edition of the journal. The last date of research paper submission is 20 May 2024

Submit your paper
Know more
The week's pick
Responsive image
Enhancing Privacy Preservation: Multi-Attribute Protection with P-Sensitive K-Anonymity

Twinkle Patel Kiran Amin
Random Articles
Reseach Article

Modeling Seasonality of Rainfall by Nonlinear curve Fitting to Monthly Rainfall Time Series of Jorhat

by Gouri Goutam Borthakur, Sudeepta Pran Baruah
journal cover thumbnail

International Journal of Computer Applications
Foundation of Computer Science (FCS), NY, USA
Volume 149 - Number 9
Year of Publication: 2016
Authors: Gouri Goutam Borthakur, Sudeepta Pran Baruah
10.5120/ijca2016911440

Gouri Goutam Borthakur, Sudeepta Pran Baruah . Modeling Seasonality of Rainfall by Nonlinear curve Fitting to Monthly Rainfall Time Series of Jorhat. International Journal of Computer Applications. 149, 9 ( Sep 2016), 6-13. DOI=10.5120/ijca2016911440

@article{ 10.5120/ijca2016911440,
author = { Gouri Goutam Borthakur, Sudeepta Pran Baruah },
title = { Modeling Seasonality of Rainfall by Nonlinear curve Fitting to Monthly Rainfall Time Series of Jorhat },
journal = { International Journal of Computer Applications },
issue_date = { Sep 2016 },
volume = { 149 },
number = { 9 },
month = { Sep },
year = { 2016 },
issn = { 0975-8887 },
pages = { 6-13 },
numpages = {9},
url = { https://ijcaonline.org/archives/volume149/number9/26023-2016911440/ },
doi = { 10.5120/ijca2016911440 },
publisher = {Foundation of Computer Science (FCS), NY, USA},
address = {New York, USA}
}
%0 Journal Article
%1 2024-02-06T23:54:16.611339+05:30
%A Gouri Goutam Borthakur
%A Sudeepta Pran Baruah
%T Modeling Seasonality of Rainfall by Nonlinear curve Fitting to Monthly Rainfall Time Series of Jorhat
%J International Journal of Computer Applications
%@ 0975-8887
%V 149
%N 9
%P 6-13
%D 2016
%I Foundation of Computer Science (FCS), NY, USA
Abstract

In this paper, an attempt to model the temporal variability of rainfall is made by performing a time series analysis on the monthly rainfall data of Jorhat from 1994 to 2013 (excluding 2003). The monthly rainfall time series showed seasonality with a prominent frequency of 0.083 cycles per year. A curve fitting technique by nonlinear regression on the original rainfall time series and on the resulting regular residuals of the subsequent fits is performed to model the seasonality of the rainfall. The selected model is capable of showing the same seasonality and frequency of rainfall variability as that of the original rainfall time series. The selected model has the potentiality to be replicated to model rainfall in places showing similar seasonality as that of the present case.

References
  1. Momani, P.E. “Time Series Analysis Model for Rainfall Data in Jordan: Case Study for Using Time Series Analysis”. American Journal of Environmental Sciences, vol. 5 (5), pp. 599-604, 2009.
  2. Aziz, A.A.R.et al. “Modeling and Forecasting Rainfall Pattern in Ghana as a Seasonal Arima Process: The Case of Ashanti Region” International Journal of Humanities and Social Science, vol. 3 (3), pp. 224-233, Feb. 2013
  3. Onof, C et al. “Rainfall modeling using Poisson-cluster processes: a review of developments”. Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment, vol. 14 (2000), pp. 384-411, 2000
  4. Suhaila, J et al. “A comparison of the rainfall patterns between stations on the East and the West coasts of Peninsular Malaysia using the smoothing model of rainfall amounts”. Meteorological Applications, vol. 16, pp. 391-401, April, 2009
  5. Hung, N.Q. et al. “An artificial neural network model for rainfall forecasting in Bangkok, Thailand”. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, vol. 13, pp. 1413-1425, 2009
  6. Badr, H.S. “Application of Statistical Models to the Prediction of Seasonal Rainfall Anomalies over the Sahel”. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, vol. 53, pp. 614-636, Oct. 2013
  7. Chatfield, C. THE ANALYSIS OF TIME SERIES AN INTRODUCTION. CHAPMAN AND HALL/CRC, 1996
  8. Shumway, R.H and Stoffer, D.S. Time Series Analysis and Its Applications With R Examples. Springer, 2011
  9. Kedem, B and Fokianos. Regression Models for Time Series Analysis. Wiley Interscience, 2002
  10. Olofintoye, O.O et al. “Best–fit Probability distribution model for peak daily rainfall of selected Cities in Nigeria”. New York Science Journal, vol. 2 (3), 2009
  11. Olumide, B.A et al. “Evaluation of Best Fit Probability Distribution Method for the Prediction of Rainfall and Runoff Volume (Case Study of Tagwai Dam, Minna- Nigeria)”. International Journal of Engineering and Technology, vol. 3 (2), pp. 94-98, Feb.2013
  12. Oseni et al. “Fitting the Statistical Distribution for Daily Rainfall in Ibadan, Based On Chi-Square and Kolmogorov-Smirnov Goodness-Of-Fit Tests”. West African Journal of Industrial and Academic Research, vol. 7 (1), pp. 93-100, Jun. 2013
  13. Berthe, K.A et al. “Gumbel Weibul distribution function for Sahel precipitation modeling and predicting: Case of Mali”. African Journal of Environmental Science and Technology, vol. 9 (5), pp. 405-412, May.2015
  14. Dunn, P.K. “Occurrence and quantity of precipitation can be modeled simultaneously”. International Journal of Climatology, vol. 24, pp. 1234-1239, May. 2004
  15. Water Resources Systems Planning and Management. UNESCO, 2005
  16. Sethi, N and Garg, K. “Exploiting Data Mining Technique for Rainfall Prediction”. International Journal of Computer Science and Information Technologies, vol. 5 (3), pp. 3982-3984, 2014
  17. Dutta, P.S and Tahbilder, H. “Prediction of Rainfall using Datamining Technique over Assam”. Indian Journal of Computer Science and Engineering, vol. 5 (2), Apr-May. 2014
  18. Rajeevan, M et al. “New statistical models for long-range forecasting of southwest monsoon rainfall over India”. Clim Dyn, Sep. 2006
  19. Boochabun, K et al. “Statistical Modeling of Rainfall and River Flow in Thailand” Journal Geological Society of India. Available: http://www.es.lancs.ac.uk/people/nickc/boochabun.pdf
  20. Jimoh, R.G. et al. “Modeling Rainfall Prediction using Fuzzy Logic”. International Journal of Innovative Research in Computer and Communication Engineering, vol. 1 (4), pp. 929-936, Jun.2013
  21. Luenam, P et al. “A Neuro-Fuzzy Approach for Daily Rainfall Prediction over the Central Region of Thailand”. Proceedings of the International MultiConference of Engineers and Computer Scientists, 2010, vol. I, Mar.2010
  22. Baruah, M.B. “Investigation of Rainfall Trend in Jorhat Town, Assam, India”. European Academic Research, vol. II (7), pp. 8945-8954, Oct.2014
  23. Bhowmik, B.C. et al. “Socio-economic dynamics of rice production system in eastern India” presented at the 4th workshop of the NATP project RRPS at the Central Rice Research Institute, Cuttack, 2001
  24. Motulsky, H.J et al. “Fitting curves to data using nonlinear regression: a practical and non mathematical review”. The FASEB Journal, vol. 1 (5), pp. 365-374, Nov. 1987
  25. Bates, D.M and Watts, D.G. Nonlinear Regression Analysis and Its Applications. Wiley Interscience, 1988
  26. Marquardt, D.W. “An Algorithm for Least-Squares Estimation of Nonlinear Parameters”. Journal of the Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics, vol. 11 (2), pp. 431-441, Jun.1963
  27. Spiess, A.N and Neumeyer, N (2010). “An evaluation of R2 as an inadequate measure for nonlinear models in pharmacological and biochemical research: a Monte Carlo approach”. Spiess and Neumeyer BMC Pharmacology. Available: http://www.biomedcentral.com/1471-2210/10/6
  28. Andrae, R et al (2010, Dec.). “Dos and don’ts of reduced chi squared”. arXiv:1012.3754v1 [astro-ph.IM]. Available: http://arxiv.org/pdf/1012.3754
  29. Tsai, C-L et al. “The Examination of Residual Plots”. Statistica Sinica, vol. 8, pp. 445-465, 1998
Index Terms

Computer Science
Information Sciences

Keywords

monthly rainfall time series seasonality curve fitting nonlinear regression Jorhat.

Powered by PhDFocusTM