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Rainfall Forecasting in Bangkok using ARIMA and ARIMAX Models: An Application to Flash Flood Risk
| International Journal of Computer Applications |
| Foundation of Computer Science (FCS), NY, USA |
| Volume 187 - Number 143 |
| Year of Publication: 2026 |
| Authors: Khin Muyar Kyaw, Pyae Phyo Kyaw, Si Thu Aung |
10.5120/ijca9038cdabb7ec
|
Khin Muyar Kyaw, Pyae Phyo Kyaw, Si Thu Aung . Rainfall Forecasting in Bangkok using ARIMA and ARIMAX Models: An Application to Flash Flood Risk. International Journal of Computer Applications. 187, 143 ( Sep 2026), 57-60. DOI=10.5120/ijca9038cdabb7ec
Abstract
Flash floods are among the natural disasters that cause the loss of human lives and property, damage infrastructure, and create economic and social hardships. Therefore, predicting flash floods remains an unsolved problem and requires substantial computational power and resources. Forecasting rainfall can help predict flash floods and serve as an initial value for hydrological model simulations of flash floods. In this study, the usability of both ARIMA and ARIMAX models is evaluated by predicting a year-long rainfall dataset. Both graphical point-of-view and MAE and RMSE calculations are provided, showing that both models performed well in predicting Bangkok rainfall data.
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