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Classification based Expert Selection for Accurate Sales Forecasting

by Darshana D. Chande, M. Vijayalakshmi
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International Journal of Computer Applications
Foundation of Computer Science (FCS), NY, USA
Volume 61 - Number 12
Year of Publication: 2013
Authors: Darshana D. Chande, M. Vijayalakshmi
10.5120/9982-4812

Darshana D. Chande, M. Vijayalakshmi . Classification based Expert Selection for Accurate Sales Forecasting. International Journal of Computer Applications. 61, 12 ( January 2013), 31-38. DOI=10.5120/9982-4812

@article{ 10.5120/9982-4812,
author = { Darshana D. Chande, M. Vijayalakshmi },
title = { Classification based Expert Selection for Accurate Sales Forecasting },
journal = { International Journal of Computer Applications },
issue_date = { January 2013 },
volume = { 61 },
number = { 12 },
month = { January },
year = { 2013 },
issn = { 0975-8887 },
pages = { 31-38 },
numpages = {9},
url = { https://ijcaonline.org/archives/volume61/number12/9982-4812/ },
doi = { 10.5120/9982-4812 },
publisher = {Foundation of Computer Science (FCS), NY, USA},
address = {New York, USA}
}
%0 Journal Article
%1 2024-02-06T21:08:56.625734+05:30
%A Darshana D. Chande
%A M. Vijayalakshmi
%T Classification based Expert Selection for Accurate Sales Forecasting
%J International Journal of Computer Applications
%@ 0975-8887
%V 61
%N 12
%P 31-38
%D 2013
%I Foundation of Computer Science (FCS), NY, USA
Abstract

Forecasting methods used in practice vary from domain to domain. This Paper focuses on sales forecasting. Most of the series considered here are composed of three components-Trend, seasonality and irregular. A series has been decomposed into its three components and multiple forecasters (Experts) have been applied on each component. Then these forecasters are recombined, using Cartesian product of their forecasts, to generate a set of Experts. A classification based scheme is proposed to identify a final good set of Experts which can be used in various combinations to create forecast for each series. Further it has been demonstrated that this forecasting system succeeds in producing a forecast that is more accurate than the Holt Winter method, which is a standard method of forecasting.

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Index Terms

Computer Science
Information Sciences

Keywords

Decomposition MAPE Classification Decision Tree Experts Combination

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