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Impact of Trend and Seasonality in Forecasting of 5 MW PV Plant Generation using Single Exponential Smoothing Method

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International Journal of Computer Applications
Foundation of Computer Science (FCS), NY, USA
Year of Publication: 2015
Authors:
Vikas Pratap Singh, Vivek Vijay, B. Ravindra, M. Siddhartha Bhatt
10.5120/ijca2015906840

Vikas Pratap Singh, Vivek Vijay, B Ravindra and Siddhartha M Bhatt. Article: Impact of Trend and Seasonality in Forecasting of 5 MW PV Plant Generation using Single Exponential Smoothing Method. International Journal of Computer Applications 130(1):5-9, November 2015. Published by Foundation of Computer Science (FCS), NY, USA. BibTeX

@article{key:article,
	author = {Vikas Pratap Singh and Vivek Vijay and B. Ravindra and M. Siddhartha Bhatt},
	title = {Article: Impact of Trend and Seasonality in Forecasting of 5 MW PV Plant Generation using Single Exponential Smoothing Method},
	journal = {International Journal of Computer Applications},
	year = {2015},
	volume = {130},
	number = {1},
	pages = {5-9},
	month = {November},
	note = {Published by Foundation of Computer Science (FCS), NY, USA}
}

Abstract

In 21st century forecasting of solar power generation is an important issue due to grid integration. In these days power shading and heavy load is a major problem in front of conventional power generation sources so grid integration is plays an important role to fill the gap in between demand and supply of power generation. So solar power and conventional power are basic sources of grid integration. Solar power is playing a key role in grid integration. In this work, Solar power generation forecasting is carried out based on the data collected from a 5MW Gujarat Power Cooperation limited solar photovoltaic power plant which is installed in Charanka, Gujarat. In this paper we discussed about the single exponential smoothing for solar power forecasting problem and impact of trend and seasonality on modelling of power generation forecasting.

References

  1. Ostertagova, e. – Ostertag, o.: 2011 “ The Simple Exponential Smoothing Model”, Proceedings of the 4th International Conference on Modelling of Mechanical and Mechatronic Systems, Technical University of Kosice, Slovak Republic, 380–384,.
  2. Brown, r. g., Meyer, R. F. 1961, “The fundamental theory of exponential smoothing, Operations Research”, 9, p. 673-685.
  3. Montgomery, D. C., Johnson, L. A., Gardiner, J. S. 1990, Forecasting and Time Series Analysis, McGraw-Hill, Inc., , ISBN 0-07-042858-1
  4. Gardner, E.S., Jr. 1985, “Exponential Smoothing: the State of the Art,” Journal of Forecasting, 4, 1-38.
  5. Chatfield, C. (1978), “The Holt-Winters Forecasting Procedure,” Applied Statistics, 27, 264-279.

Keywords

Solar Power, Forecasting, Single Exponential Smoothing