Call for Paper - November 2023 Edition
IJCA solicits original research papers for the November 2023 Edition. Last date of manuscript submission is October 20, 2023. Read More

Investigation of a Novel Technique for Decline Curve Analysis in Comparison with the Conventional Models

International Journal of Computer Applications
© 2014 by IJCA Journal
Volume 99 - Number 18
Year of Publication: 2014
Mehdi Bahari Moghadam
Alireza Rostami
Edris Joonaki
Payam Mohammad Ali Nejad

Mehdi Bahari Moghadam, Alireza Rostami, Edris Joonaki and Payam Mohammad Ali Nejad. Article: Investigation of a Novel Technique for Decline Curve Analysis in Comparison with the Conventional Models. International Journal of Computer Applications 99(18):1-11, August 2014. Full text available. BibTeX

	author = {Mehdi Bahari Moghadam and Alireza Rostami and Edris Joonaki and Payam Mohammad Ali Nejad},
	title = {Article: Investigation of a Novel Technique for Decline Curve Analysis in Comparison with the Conventional Models},
	journal = {International Journal of Computer Applications},
	year = {2014},
	volume = {99},
	number = {18},
	pages = {1-11},
	month = {August},
	note = {Full text available}


It has been proven that the common Arps empirical decline curve analysis (DCA) to be an extensively used tool for many years, however, it has much error in production forecasting. In the past, engineers forecasted the oil production rates without understanding of the reservoir engineering principals behind and without having the reservoir properties and operating conditions. These problems influences the quality of the production prediction by Arps model and decreases the validity of this technique. In addition, even by having those properties and conditions a reliable production prediction still cannot be promised without understanding of the theory that connects reservoir properties and operation to the production decline. Experience discovered that the production decline is completely complex that can't be handled just by a simple mathematical model such as Arp, so the lack of an efficient tool for DCA is still essential. This paper presents the simultaneous use of the conventional Arps method and ANN-PSO as forecasting tools to find the optimum decline curve model. Production data from Ramin oilfield in Iran is analyzed by using these two techniques to forecast future the production performance. Arps decline curve and ANN-PSO models are compared, and the most appropriate approach is introduced in this paper. Consequently it is found out that ANN-PSO model gives a better results and can be used as a novel tool for DCA.


  • Arps, J. J. , 1945, "Analysis of Decline Curves," Trans. AIME, 228-247.
  • Wang, J. 2008, "Decline Curve Analysis of Trattnach Oil Field", pp. 6-10, 9th, M. Sc. Thesis.
  • Gentry, R. W. , 1996, "Decline Curve Analysis", pp. 1, SPE-AIME, SPE-3356, Edinger, Inc.
  • Fetkovich, M. J. 1980, June, "Decline Curve Analysis Using Type Curves," Journal of Petroleum Technology, Vol. 32, No. 6: 1065-77.
  • Lefkovits, N. Cand, Matthews, C. S. , 1958,"Application of Decline Curves to Gravity-Drainage Reservoir in the Stripper Stage," Trans. AIME, 213-277.
  • Doublet, L. E. , Pande, P. K. , McCollum, T. J. , and Blasingame, T. A. 1994. Decline Curve Analysis Using Type Curves Analysis of Oil Well Production Data Using Material Balance Time: Application to Field Cases, paper SPE 28688 presented at the Petroleum Conference and Exhibition of Mexico held in Veracruz, Mexico.
  • Spivey, J. P. , 1986, "A new Algorithm for Decline Curve Fitting," SPE 15293. Symposium on Petroleum Industry Application of Microcomputers of SPE, Silver Creek, CO.
  • Fetkovich, M. J. , 1973, "Decline Curve Analysis Using Type Curves," SPE 4629, AIME 48 Annual Fall Meeting, Las Vegas.
  • Doung, A. N. , 1989, "A new Approach for Decline-Curve Analysis," SPE 18859, SPE Production Operations Symposium, Oklahoma City, OK.
  • Meyet, M. , Dutta, R. , Burns, C. , Hughes, B. , 2013, "Comparison of Decline Curve Analysis Methods with Analytical Models in Unconventional Plays",pp. 1-2, SPE 166365, New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.
  • Shirman, E. , 1998, "Universal Approach to the Decline Curve Analysis", pp. 1-2, presented at the 49th Annual Technical Meeting of The Petroleum Society in Calgary, Alberta Louisiana State University, Alberta, Canada.
  • Hornik K, Stinchcombe M, White H. , 1990, "Universal approximation of an unknown mapping and its derivatives using multilayer feed forward networks". Neural Netw 3(5):551–560.
  • Ganesan, T. , Elamvazuthi, I. , Vasant, P. , 2011, "Solving engineering optimization problems with the Karush–Kuhn–Tucker Hopfield neural networks", International Review of Mechanical Engineering 5 1333–1339.
  • Brown M. , Harris C. , 1994, "Neural fuzzy adaptive modeling and control. Prentice-Hall, Englewood Cliffs.