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Forecasting of Export and Import Value of Industrial in Indonesia based on Monte Carlo Algorithm

by Afina Ahwan, Rodiah
journal cover thumbnail

International Journal of Computer Applications
Foundation of Computer Science (FCS), NY, USA
Volume 176 - Number 12
Year of Publication: 2020
Authors: Afina Ahwan, Rodiah
10.5120/ijca2020920016

Afina Ahwan, Rodiah . Forecasting of Export and Import Value of Industrial in Indonesia based on Monte Carlo Algorithm. International Journal of Computer Applications. 176, 12 ( Apr 2020), 8-14. DOI=10.5120/ijca2020920016

@article{ 10.5120/ijca2020920016,
author = { Afina Ahwan, Rodiah },
title = { Forecasting of Export and Import Value of Industrial in Indonesia based on Monte Carlo Algorithm },
journal = { International Journal of Computer Applications },
issue_date = { Apr 2020 },
volume = { 176 },
number = { 12 },
month = { Apr },
year = { 2020 },
issn = { 0975-8887 },
pages = { 8-14 },
numpages = {9},
url = { https://ijcaonline.org/archives/volume176/number12/31251-2020920016/ },
doi = { 10.5120/ijca2020920016 },
publisher = {Foundation of Computer Science (FCS), NY, USA},
address = {New York, USA}
}
%0 Journal Article
%1 2024-02-07T00:42:18.070578+05:30
%A Afina Ahwan
%A Rodiah
%T Forecasting of Export and Import Value of Industrial in Indonesia based on Monte Carlo Algorithm
%J International Journal of Computer Applications
%@ 0975-8887
%V 176
%N 12
%P 8-14
%D 2020
%I Foundation of Computer Science (FCS), NY, USA
Abstract

Two activities in international trade, namely export and import activities. If the number of exports increases, the value of the domestic currency increases, and the rupiah exchange rate strengthens. The appropriate government policy in determining the economic activity in the plan is to know the priority industry in Indonesia. Forecasting is used to estimate what will happen in the future, based on data in the past. The Monte Carlo method is one of the forecasting methods that can be used. The Monte Carlo method calculates the possibilities that will occur by generating distribution values and intervals of each data that was processed. Random numbers for forecasting simulation have been collected as much as 250 random numbers. Forecasting will also result in the calculation of the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) to see how much an error was forecasting. The smallest MAPE value found in for forecasting the export value of Rubber, Rubber and Plastics Products with 0,53%.

References
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  3. Alam, S., & Alim, S. 2018. Forecasting The Number of Foreign Tourists Who Visit To East Java Using Monte Carlo Method.
  4. Suban, A. L., Yandi Uran, J. K., & Kalla, Y. (2015). Simulasi Perkiraan Keuntungan Penjualan Pulsa Pada Uran Cell Menggunakan Metode Monte Carlo Berbasis Web.
  5. Putra, T. A., & Hadi, A. F. (2018). Perancangan aplikasi keuntungan produk rokok dengan menggunakan metode monte carlo di toko nabila. VII(1), 164–188
Index Terms

Computer Science
Information Sciences

Keywords

Forecasting Monte Carlo Algorithm Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS)

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